The Road to Power: Elections

The Road to Power: Elections

Top: Campaign ad from 2014 House Race 

Bottom: Campaign ad from 2016 House Race

     A quick look at the transformation of her image from the newcomer wearing a baggy shirt and athletic shorts to the incumbent wearing a blazer and having perfect hair

The Past

   2014: 

      General Election:  

            Ron Barber (D-Incumbent)--49.9% of the vote

            Martha McSally (R)--50% of the vote

                 This election was considered especially contentious because Barber and McSally had faced off in 2012 and Barber won by a slim margin. McSally ended up being confirmed the winner by less than 200 votes through the District Courts after a mandatory recount because of the incredibly narrow margin

      Primary Election: 

           Martha McSally--69.4% of the vote

           Chuck Wooten--22.9% of the vote

           Shelly Kais--7.8% of the vote

                 While the general election was extremely close, McSally absolutely creamed her opponents in the primary election, suggesting that she is very popular among people of her own party. 

   2016:

      General Election

         Martha McSally (R-Incumbent)--57% of the vote

         Matt Heinz- (D)--43% of the vote

              The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona was labeled safely republican as the general election began in favor of incumbent Martha McSally. This was welcomed news by Republicans after Representative McSally first won the seat in the closest U.S. House race in the nation's history in 2014.

The Future and Possible Obstacles

   Representative McSally has made no indication to lead people to believe that she would not be running for re-election in 2018. Assuming that she is running, here are a few predictions for her upcoming race.

        Primary Race: McSally will not be challenged to a primary race, just as she wasn't in the 2016 election. 

        General Race: McSally will retain her seat as the U.S. Representative for Arizona's Second District. However, the results will be much closer than they were in the 2016 general election. While McSally will no doubt be affected by national approval for the current presidential administration and thus the Republican Party, McSally's incumbent advantage, strong record, and general badassery will help her retain her seat in Congress. No doubt that Arizona's 2nd will be labeled as a battleground district and McSally will be seen as vulnerable. This comes with its own advantages, such as receiving support and campaign funds from party leadership. 

   There are a few obstacles that Rep. McSally must overcome in order to retain her seat in 2018...

                                

                                     

   Like most Republicans, Martha McSally will have to struggle with the nation's approval of the party leader, President Donald Trump. Historically, it has always been harder for members of the same party as the president to get re-elected in a midterm election when his approval ratings have been low, as seen with President Obama and Democrats in 2014. As of right now, President Trump/s approval ratings are currently 41%, about the level Barack Obama was at in 2014. How much bearing Trump's approval ratings and the number os seats won or lost by Congressional republicans is still up for debate, as the relationship between the two is not always consistent and can have a very large margin of error. 

McSally's Strengths:

   While I very strongly suspect there to be more of an uphill battle for Martha McSally in 2018 than in 2016, McSally does have some definite strengths and advantages that may allow her to keep her seat for another term

1. Military Experience--Being a retired Airforce Colonel bodes well with any constituency. However, running in a district that houses the Fort Huachuca Army Base (which also happens to be one of Cochise Country's largest employers) makes her military career an even bigger plus.
2. Congressional Track Record--Despite being a freshman senator, Martha McSally actually has a record that shows she has been busy in Congress, introducing, sponsoring, and passing many bills. While she can make the Republicans in her district happy by ensuring she is working to repeal and replace Obamacare, has and continues to relax EPA regulations for her district, and is against raising taxes, she can also appeal to the other side of the aisle. McSally constantly touts her bipartisan efforts to save the A-10 Warthog, the progress she has made on providing necessary services for veterans, and her voting record which shows her often voting against her own party on issues such as immigration and equal pay. 
3. Power in Congress--The two committees Representative McSally is a part of (Committee on Armed Services and Committee on Homeland Security) speak to her experience as a military officer and a former national security advisor to other members of Congress. Not to mention the fact that the names of the committees she sits on sound very important and relevant to today's issues. 
4. Martha McSally--She is her own strength. Champion of the D.D.S.S. movement (Don't Do Stupid Stuff), breaker of records, a female warrior, and general badass all aid in her drive for re-election. 
5. Fundraising--"I've always said that power is more important than money, but when it comes to elections, money gives power, well, a run for its money." -Frank Underwood, House of Cards

Source for both graphics is Ballotpedia