Crafting an Image: The Electoral Connection

Crafting an Image: The Electoral Connection

"Congressmen must constantly engage in activities related to reelection." - Mayhew, pg. 49

Advertising:

   For Representative Martha McSally, advertising means money. While it is true that billboards, yard signs, commercials, ect. take money, McSally takes this to the extreme. The average House member in 2016 raised about $1.8 million in campaign contributions, McSally raised $8.45 million and spent $8.58 million in the 2016 election. McSally flooded the 2nd District with images of her face and people saying her name so that people would step into the voting booth and say "Oh wait, there's a doctor running against her? That's weird." and vote for the incumbent McSally. 

   Rep. McSally also advertised heavily through the incumbency advantage of franking, which can also be used for position taking and credit claiming. According to a Statement of Disbursements of the House, April 1, 2015 through June 30, 2015, McSally only spent about 0.35% of the budget granted to her by Congress on franking. However, according to a similar report for April 1, 2016 through June 30, 2016, McSally increased this dramatically by spending 8.14% of her budget on franking. 

   Representative McSally follows the guidelines of advertising through means that have little or no content as asserted by Mayhew. Some of her more popular ads from the 2016 election such as "Dad" (a video of which can be found in my previous blog post) and "Boomer" really work to build a reputation for McSally as a person rather than talk about her ideas or plans for a second term in Congress. 

Position Taking:

   Representatives participate in the electoral activity of position taking in many different ways. One of the most prominent is through her McSally's website which discusses her general stance on the issues that concern her and her district. 

   Representative McSally also frequently uses press releases and news media to clarify her positions. For Martha McSally especially, whose district is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, it is necessary to try to balance and communicate her positions in the quite divisive atmosphere brought about by the new presidential administration. Accordingly, many of McSally's most recent press releases discuss her reactions to the different actions taken by the executive branch, including her response to the border executive order, something particularly important to her district since it shares a border with Mexico, and letters that urge President Trump to "Restore Animal Welfare Transparency",

Credit Claiming:

   One of Representative McSally's favorite pastimes is credit claiming. Whether it is through social media, press releases, news media, websites, or face to face, McSally champions herself as not only the woman who can get things done, but who is getting things done. Her Instagram shows how she is securing the border, her Twitter boasts of her being a Vice Chair of the Readiness Subcommittee, and her Facebook highlights how she is a champion of mental health. Her website is full of boasts about her sponsoring this bill and getting that bill through the House. 

   To make sure everyone knows of all the great things she is doing in Washington D.C., McSally frequently travels back to her district to tell the population how grateful they should be to have her. While in 2015, McSally spent about 3.54% of her Congressional budget on travel, she nearly doubled that in 2016 up to 6.3%, just to make sure that when people were voting they could keep in mind all her good deeds. 

The Road to Power: Elections

The Road to Power: Elections

Top: Campaign ad from 2014 House Race 

Bottom: Campaign ad from 2016 House Race

     A quick look at the transformation of her image from the newcomer wearing a baggy shirt and athletic shorts to the incumbent wearing a blazer and having perfect hair

The Past

   2014: 

      General Election:  

            Ron Barber (D-Incumbent)--49.9% of the vote

            Martha McSally (R)--50% of the vote

                 This election was considered especially contentious because Barber and McSally had faced off in 2012 and Barber won by a slim margin. McSally ended up being confirmed the winner by less than 200 votes through the District Courts after a mandatory recount because of the incredibly narrow margin

      Primary Election: 

           Martha McSally--69.4% of the vote

           Chuck Wooten--22.9% of the vote

           Shelly Kais--7.8% of the vote

                 While the general election was extremely close, McSally absolutely creamed her opponents in the primary election, suggesting that she is very popular among people of her own party. 

   2016:

      General Election

         Martha McSally (R-Incumbent)--57% of the vote

         Matt Heinz- (D)--43% of the vote

              The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona was labeled safely republican as the general election began in favor of incumbent Martha McSally. This was welcomed news by Republicans after Representative McSally first won the seat in the closest U.S. House race in the nation's history in 2014.

The Future and Possible Obstacles

   Representative McSally has made no indication to lead people to believe that she would not be running for re-election in 2018. Assuming that she is running, here are a few predictions for her upcoming race.

        Primary Race: McSally will not be challenged to a primary race, just as she wasn't in the 2016 election. 

        General Race: McSally will retain her seat as the U.S. Representative for Arizona's Second District. However, the results will be much closer than they were in the 2016 general election. While McSally will no doubt be affected by national approval for the current presidential administration and thus the Republican Party, McSally's incumbent advantage, strong record, and general badassery will help her retain her seat in Congress. No doubt that Arizona's 2nd will be labeled as a battleground district and McSally will be seen as vulnerable. This comes with its own advantages, such as receiving support and campaign funds from party leadership. 

   There are a few obstacles that Rep. McSally must overcome in order to retain her seat in 2018...

                                

                                     

   Like most Republicans, Martha McSally will have to struggle with the nation's approval of the party leader, President Donald Trump. Historically, it has always been harder for members of the same party as the president to get re-elected in a midterm election when his approval ratings have been low, as seen with President Obama and Democrats in 2014. As of right now, President Trump/s approval ratings are currently 41%, about the level Barack Obama was at in 2014. How much bearing Trump's approval ratings and the number os seats won or lost by Congressional republicans is still up for debate, as the relationship between the two is not always consistent and can have a very large margin of error. 

McSally's Strengths:

   While I very strongly suspect there to be more of an uphill battle for Martha McSally in 2018 than in 2016, McSally does have some definite strengths and advantages that may allow her to keep her seat for another term

1. Military Experience--Being a retired Airforce Colonel bodes well with any constituency. However, running in a district that houses the Fort Huachuca Army Base (which also happens to be one of Cochise Country's largest employers) makes her military career an even bigger plus.
2. Congressional Track Record--Despite being a freshman senator, Martha McSally actually has a record that shows she has been busy in Congress, introducing, sponsoring, and passing many bills. While she can make the Republicans in her district happy by ensuring she is working to repeal and replace Obamacare, has and continues to relax EPA regulations for her district, and is against raising taxes, she can also appeal to the other side of the aisle. McSally constantly touts her bipartisan efforts to save the A-10 Warthog, the progress she has made on providing necessary services for veterans, and her voting record which shows her often voting against her own party on issues such as immigration and equal pay. 
3. Power in Congress--The two committees Representative McSally is a part of (Committee on Armed Services and Committee on Homeland Security) speak to her experience as a military officer and a former national security advisor to other members of Congress. Not to mention the fact that the names of the committees she sits on sound very important and relevant to today's issues. 
4. Martha McSally--She is her own strength. Champion of the D.D.S.S. movement (Don't Do Stupid Stuff), breaker of records, a female warrior, and general badass all aid in her drive for re-election. 
5. Fundraising--"I've always said that power is more important than money, but when it comes to elections, money gives power, well, a run for its money." -Frank Underwood, House of Cards

Source for both graphics is Ballotpedia

Arizona's Second Congressional District: The Fighting 2nd!

Arizona's Second Congressional District

Summary: Arizona's second congressional district is located in the southeast corner of the state. Its southern border is shared with Mexico is made up of Cochise Country and portions of Prima Country (which is home to the major city of Tuscon). The district is currently represented by Martha McSally (R) who has been in the congressional seat since 2013 and was previously held by Ron Barbar (D). The district is close to even in the number of democrats and republicans and has flip-flopped many times on party for its representatives. 

Demographics: 

• Population: 722,918
• Race: 81.8% White, 4.1% Black, 3.2% Asian
• Ethnicity: 26..5% Hispanic
• Median Age: 41.7 years
• Unemployment: 10.7%
• Median income: $44,921
• High School Graduation Rate: 90.1%
• College Graduation Rate: 30.3%

Economy:

• Population Below the Poverty Line: 16.1%
• Percentage of Employed Population by Industry:
• 25.5% Educational services/health care/social services
• 13.5% Management/administrative services
• 12.7% Retail Trade
• 11.3% Arts/entertainment/accommodation and food services
• Major Employers: University of Arizona, Raytheon Missile Systems, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Fort Huachuca, U.S. Border Patrol, Wal-Mart Stores, State of Arizona

Election History:

• Donald Trump won Arizona in the general election with 48.7% of the vote
• Arizona has been won by the Republican presidential nominee since 2000
• 34.6% of Arizona's registered voters are republican and 30.3% are democrat
• The remaining 35.1% are registered as part of the green party, libertarian, or other
• Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is often considered a battleground district because of the "roughly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans"

Conclusion: This district is basically just a bunch of people who are more concerned with have an unemployment rate double that of the national average that they really couldn't give a crap about party drama and partisan gridlock. They just need someone to help them fix the district's issues so they try to give both sides of the aisle a chance to improve things. Although, the district's notable Hispanic population and the fact that it shares a border with Mexico means that even the Republican representatives or state legislators are not about to jump on the bandwagon of banishing all immigrants (legal or illegal) and are much more likely to continue programs that help immigrants. Likewise, democrats are going to act a lot tougher on border security than their northern colleagues may be. 

Profile of Representative Martha McSally

U.S. Representative Martha McSally

Biography: Martha McSally was born on March 22, 1966, in Warwick, Rhode Island to Bernard McSally (a lawyer) and Eleanor McSally (a reading specialist). After finishing school at St. Mary's Academy in 1984, where she graduated at the top of her class, she earned a spot at the prestigious U.S. Airforce Academy. She continued her service in the Airforce for the next 26 years. After a distinguished military career, Ms. McSally became a professor of National Security Services at the George C. Marshall Center in Germany where she "taught and mentored senior military officials from around the world.: Representative McSally also obtained Masters degrees from both Harvard's John F. Kennedy's School of Government and U.S. Air War College in Public Policy and Strategic Studies where she succeeded in graduating "#1 in her class of 261 senior military officers." Martha McSally was also briefly married to fellow Air Force officer Donald F. Henry from 1997-1999 before the marriage was annulled. The short relationship is a matter of which both McSally and Henry are largely silent on and have even lead to allegations of a faked marriage so that McSally could have better chances of getting into a highly selective Airforce program, however, it is worth noting that there is little evidence of this. Representative McSally now lives in Tuscon with her golden retriever Boomer and is described as an outdoor enthusiast.                                                                                        Sources: https://mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/pamela-powers-hannley/sham-marriage-allegations_b_2036319.html

Military Career: Rep. McSally's military career first reached its peak in 1995 when she flew her first combat mission to Iraq in an A-10 Warthog. That particular time in the Airforce seems to hold special significance for McSally as it is reported that she still wears a small gold chain on a necklace that is meant to represent the A-10 Warthog. After serving for some time on various missions in the Middle East, Martha McSally was selected an A-10 pilot instructor for the 358th Fighter Squadron, the first of many roles that McSally would claim the title of being the first woman in the country's history of holding. She was then selected to be a part of the Legislative Fellowship Program, during which she advised Senator Jon Kyl on issues such as terrorism, cyber security, and other matters of national security. McSally then served on several more missions in the Middle East in areas such as Iraq, Saudia Arabia, and Afghanistan. Just one of the many campaigns she flew during her time there included the initial response to Afghanistan after the September 11th attacks, of which she was also an incremental part of the team that planned the assault. In 2004, Rep. McSally took over as the first female commander of the 354th Fighter Squadron, a 24-hour response force available anywhere in the world. Over her entire military career, Martha McSally flew a total of 2,600 hours, 325 of which were classified as combat and earned six air medals. She was also responsible for a court case that was ultimately responsible for legislation being signed by the President that ended the practice of requiring female Airforce members from having to wear a traditional Muslim covering (known as an abaya) when working off-base. Representative McSally has also continued her commitment to bettering the Airforce by trying to change the culture of sexual harassment, which the retired Airforce colonel claims to have been a victim of, to create an atmosphere of zero tolerance for such behavior. 

     Sources: https://mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography  http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/01/07/capital-download-rep-martha-mcsally-on-military-sexual-assault/21401145/

 

Political Office: Martha McSally was sworn in to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives for Arizona's second district in January 2015. Rep. McSally was also recently re-elected to her office after winning over Democrat Matt Heinz by 13 points. McSally is a part of the Committee on Armed Services, which includes the subcommittees of Tactical Air and Land Forces as well as Oversight and Investigations, and the Committee on Homeland Security, which presides over both the Emergency Preparedness, Response, and Communications Subcommittee and the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee (of which McSally acts as the chair). McSally won her seat in 2015 after a failed running attempt in 2012. Martha McSally ran in 2012 against incumbent democrat, Representative Ron Barber. McSally ended up losing by a margin of fewer than 2,500 votes. However, the margins were so slim still several weeks after the election that McSally actually traveled to Washington D.C. to participate in orientation and "even appeared in the freshman class picture." McSally and Rep. Barber met again in 2014 where she narrowly beat him to take over her current seat. Rep. McSally's margin of victory was so slim that Arizona courts were forced to do a recount and announced more than six weeks after the election took place that she had won by a mere 167 votes. McSally often follows traditional GOP party lines with issues such as immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and energy. She identifies as pro-life, called President Trump's executive order calling for the construction of a border wall, "a strong start in the right direction," applauded sanctions on Iran by the Treasury Department saying that "it's about time we got serious about holding Iran accountable for its dangerous and destructive behavior," and consistently pushing for more relaxed EPA regulations, often insisting that strict rules about emission cutdowns and other environmental protectors would hurt rural Arizonans. There have been instances where Representative McSally crosses the party line, however. For example, in 2015 she just one of 26 Republicans that voted against her party's bill that would have revoked legal protections for undocumented immigrants that were brought to the United States as children. She also announced during her run for office that she backs the Democratic-sponsored Equal Pay Bill. Overall, Rep. McSally considers her motto for her actions in Congress to be D.D.S.S. (or Don't Do Stupid Stuff). She hopes that herself and other members of the Republican party can prove to the American people that they deserve the chance they were given with such a large party majority in both chambers of Congress and, of course, is always looking for ways to be a champion for her district. 

     Sources: https://mcsally.house.gov/about/committees-and-caucuses  http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/arizona-house-district-2-mcsally-heinz  http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/martha-mcsally-arizona-second-113640  https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/31/us/politics/second-times-a-charm-for-martha-mcsally-in-arizona.html?_r=0   https://mcsally.house.gov/issues

Fun Facts: Received both the Bronze Star and the David C. Shilling Award for her outstanding accomplishments in the Air Force.

                   Is an accomplished athlete having won both the National Military Triathlon Championship several times as well as taking first place in the Military Division of the Hawaii Ironman Triathlon.

                  Holds the congressional seat that was formerly held by Gabrielle Giffords, who was forced to vacate it after she was severely injured in an attempted assassination attempt. 

Voting Record: Recent votes affirm McSally's conservative positions of deregulating business, seeking damages from foreign states for terrorism attacks, relaxing environmental regulations, repealing Obamacare, and providing services for veterans. For a detailed history of Representative McSally's voting record please visit https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/137299/martha-mcsally#.WJ33kTsrLIV or https://mcsally.house.gov/about/votes-and-legislation